{"id":185,"date":"2006-10-12T21:22:08","date_gmt":"2006-10-12T21:22:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/scientopia.org\/blogs\/goodmath\/2006\/10\/12\/following-up-on-the-lancet-study\/"},"modified":"2006-10-12T21:22:08","modified_gmt":"2006-10-12T21:22:08","slug":"following-up-on-the-lancet-study","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/2006\/10\/12\/following-up-on-the-lancet-study\/","title":{"rendered":"Following Up on the Lancet Study"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As expected, the Lancet study on civilian deaths in Iraq has created a firestorm on the net. What frankly astounds me is how utterly *dreadful* most of the critiques of the study have been.<br \/>\nMy own favorite for sheer chutzpah is [Omar Fadil](http:\/\/politicscentral.com\/2006\/10\/11\/jaccuse_iraq_the_model_respond.php):<br \/>\n&gt;I wonder if that research team was willing to go to North Korea or Libya and I<br \/>\n&gt;think they wouldn&#8217;t have the guts to dare ask Saddam to let them in and investigate<br \/>\n&gt;deaths under his regime.<br \/>\n&gt;No, they would&#8217;ve shit their pants the moment they set foot in Iraq and they would<br \/>\n&gt;find themselves surrounded by the Mukhabarat men counting their breaths. However,<br \/>\n&gt;maybe they would have the chance to receive a gift from the tyrant in exchange for<br \/>\n&gt;painting a rosy picture about his rule.<br \/>\n&gt;<br \/>\n&gt;They shamelessly made an auction of our blood, and it didn&#8217;t make a difference if<br \/>\n&gt;the blood was shed by a bomb or a bullet or a heart attack because the bigger the<br \/>\n&gt;count the more useful it becomes to attack this or that policy in a political race<br \/>\n&gt;and the more useful it becomes in cheerleading for murderous tyrannical regimes.<br \/>\n&gt;<br \/>\n&gt;When the statistics announced by hospitals and military here, or even by the UN,<br \/>\n&gt;did not satisfy their lust for more deaths, they resorted to mathematics to get a<br \/>\n&gt;fake number that satisfies their sadistic urges.<br \/>\nYou see, going door to door in the middle of a war zone where people<br \/>\nare being murdered at a horrifying rate &#8211; that&#8217;s just the *peak* of cowardice! And wanting to know how many people have died in a way &#8211; that&#8217;s clearly nothing but pure bloodthirst &#8211; those horrible anti-war people just *love* the blood.<br \/>\nAnd the math is all just a lie. Never mind that it&#8217;s valid statistical mathematics. Never mind that it&#8217;s a valid and well-proven methodology. Don&#8217;t even waste time actually *looking* at the data, or the metholodogy, or the math. Because people like Omar *know* the truth. They don&#8217;t need to do any analysis. They *know*. And anyone who actually risks their neck on the ground gathering real data &#8211; they&#8217;re just a bunch of sadistic liars who resort to math as a means of lying.<br \/>\nThat&#8217;s typical of the responses to the study. People who don&#8217;t like the result are simply asserting that it *can&#8217;t* be right, they *know* it can&#8217;t be right. No argument, no analysis, just blind assertions, ranging from emotional beliefs that<br \/>\n[the conclusions *must* be wrong](http:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/worldtoday\/content\/2006\/s1763454.htm) to<br \/>\n[accusations that the study is fake](http:\/\/rightwingnuthouse.com\/archives\/2006\/10\/11\/a-most-ghoulish-debate\/), to [claims that the entire concept of statistical analysis is<br \/>\nclearly garbage.](http:\/\/timblair.net\/ee\/index.php\/weblog\/please_consider\/)<br \/>\nThe Lancet study is far from perfect. And there *are* people who have<br \/>\ncome forward with [legitimate questions and criticisms](http:\/\/scienceblogs.com\/authority\/2006\/10\/the_iraq_study_-_how_good_is_i.php) about it. But that&#8217;s not the response that we&#8217;ve seen from the right-wind media and blogosphere today. All we&#8217;ve seen is blind, pig-ignorant bullshit &#8211; a bunch of innumerate jackasses screaming at the top of their lungs: &#8220;**IT&#8217;S WRONG BECAUSE WE SAY IT&#8217;S WRONG AND IF YOU DISAGREE YOU&#8217;RE A TRAITOR!&#8221;**&#8221;.<br \/>\nThe conclusion that I draw from all of this? The study *is* correct. No one, no matter how they try,  has been able to show any *real* problem with the methodology, the data, or the analysis that indicates that the estimates are invalid. When they start throwing out all of statistical mathematics because they don&#8217;t like the conclusion of a single study, you know that they can&#8217;t find a problem with the study.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As expected, the Lancet study on civilian deaths in Iraq has created a firestorm on the net. What frankly astounds me is how utterly *dreadful* most of the critiques of the study have been. My own favorite for sheer chutzpah is [Omar Fadil](http:\/\/politicscentral.com\/2006\/10\/11\/jaccuse_iraq_the_model_respond.php): &gt;I wonder if that research team was willing to go to North [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4lzZS-2Z","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=185"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}