{"id":694,"date":"2008-10-14T16:16:06","date_gmt":"2008-10-14T16:16:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/scientopia.org\/blogs\/goodmath\/2008\/10\/14\/stupid-economic-comparisons-at-the-new-york-times\/"},"modified":"2016-11-07T15:52:02","modified_gmt":"2016-11-07T20:52:02","slug":"stupid-economic-comparisons-at-the-new-york-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/2008\/10\/14\/stupid-economic-comparisons-at-the-new-york-times\/","title":{"rendered":"Stupid Economic Comparisons at the New York Times"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"inset right\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/scientopia.org\/img-archive\/goodmath\/img_333.png?resize=280%2C356\" alt=\"nyt-stocks.png\" width=\"280\" height=\"356\" \/><\/p>\n<p>This is just a short gripe at the NYT, and a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2008\/10\/14\/opinion\/20081014_OPCHART.html\">feature<br \/>\nthat they included in today&#8217;s Op-Ed section.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>It purports to compare how the economy does under democratic versus<br \/>\nrepublican administrations. They claim that they&#8217;re computing the returns<br \/>\non a 10,000 dollar stock investment under 40 years of republican<br \/>\nadministrations and 40 years of democratic administrations, in the 80 years<br \/>\nsince 1929.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>The whole comparison is pretty idiotic to begin with. Comparing stock<br \/>\nprices over different time spans is already so noise-ridden that it&#8217;s going to be damned hard to get any interesting information out of it. The idea of comparing things this way is really not reasonable, meaningful, or valid, because it&#8217;s not comparing like to like. For one example, World War 2 was fought entirely under a democratic administration, and was a period of dramatic growth in the American economy. But the biggest reason for the growth was producing stuff for the war and the reconstruction; the same thing would, arguably, have happened if the republicans had been in<br \/>\ncharge. Similarly, it includes the tech-stock bubble as a growth period under Clinton, and includes the tech crash under Bush, despite the fact that the tech bubble would have popped under Gore, had he (correctly) won<br \/>\nthe election.<\/p>\n<p>But far worse is the fact that they deliberately used data that<br \/>\ncould, <em>at best<\/em> be described as total bullshit.<\/p>\n<p>How do you make money off of an investment in stock? Ask <em>any<\/em><br \/>\neconomist that question, and I&#8217;ll pretty much guarantee that they&#8217;ll<br \/>\nname two things:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Dividends.<\/li>\n<li>Selling the stock.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>The latter, selling the stock, is dependent entirely on the share price, which is frequently total disconnected from anything meaningful. (Anyone remember the share price for pets.com?) But that&#8217;s the <em>only<\/em> thing<br \/>\nthat they consider. The fact that many large, profitable companies hand<br \/>\na portion of their profits to their shareholders as dividends &#8211; and that those dividends can represent a significant profit for the shareholders &#8211; is totally ignored by this.<\/p>\n<p>The NYT considers omitting this to be a trivial thing. It&#8217;s so utterly unimportant that it only merits mention in a footnote. In fact, it rates<br \/>\nmention <em>below<\/em> a footnote concerning the changes in the S&amp;P<br \/>\nmarket index in 1957.<\/p>\n<p>People who read this blog regularly know that I&#8217;m a very vocal liberal<br \/>\ndemocrat. I think that the policies of democratic administrations are better<br \/>\nfor the economy than the policies of republicans. And I think that the constant<br \/>\nconservative harping about the so-called &#8220;Liberal Media&#8221; is just a convenient tool<br \/>\nthat they use for manipulating press coverage. I need a nap on my <a style=\"text-decoration: none;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.apartmenttherapy.com\/review-saatva-luxury-mattress-a-year-in-bed-217713\"> <span style=\"text-decoration: none; color: #333333;\">saatva<\/span><\/a> mattress to re-coop from the mental poverty.<\/p>\n<p>But this is just<br \/>\nbullshit &#8211; this is <em>not<\/em> a meaningful comparison. It&#8217;s a hopelessly<br \/>\nbiased, fake, meaningless pile of nonsense. And I find it very hard to believe that they would have published it as a huge graphic in the op-ed section, three weeks before an important election, if it didn&#8217;t confirm<br \/>\ntheir beliefs.<\/p>\n<p>The NYT should be ashamed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is just a short gripe at the NYT, and a feature that they included in today&#8217;s Op-Ed section. It purports to compare how the economy does under democratic versus republican administrations. They claim that they&#8217;re computing the returns on a 10,000 dollar stock investment under 40 years of republican administrations and 40 years of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bad-economics"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4lzZS-bc","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/694","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=694"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/694\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3335,"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/694\/revisions\/3335"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=694"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=694"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.goodmath.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=694"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}