Remember back in the end of june, when I [talked about these insane bozos][code] who were [predicting that a nuclear bomb would be blown up in the UN plaza?][firsttime] And they were on their fourth prediction about when this would happen? And how each time they blew it, [they came up with an excuse for why they were wrong?][update]
I thought it would be fun to take a look back at them, and see what they’re up to six weeks later. Naturally, [they’re still at it.][bozos] They’ve updated their prediction 5 more times now.
But there are a couple of really amusing things about what they’re up to now.
First, they’ve declared victory:
>We correctly predicted that the UN would lose its headship in 2006Tammuz (this
>being the 2nd head of the image of the Beast of Revelation 13) which gets a
>death stroke but then recovers. It lost its head on 2006July12 when Israel
>invaded Lebanon without a UN mandate. The UN lost credibility and lost control >for a month. It lost headship over Israel for one month. But the image of the
>Beast does not lose two heads, it only loses one head. Each of the 7 heads of
>the image of the UN Beast stands for one month of military headship over the
>governments of the world, just as the 7 heads of the UN Beast itself each stand
>for one year of military headship over the governments of the world. So we knew
>it had to regain headship this month and it did by virtue of the multilaterally
>agreed UN Security Council ceasefire resolution of Friday 2006August11. Now the
>UN will declare Peace and Security and then sudden destruction will befall them
>according to 1 Thessalonians 5:3. So please leave NYC for the sabbath!!!
And second, they’ve worked *their errors* into their code. That is, they’re now saying that their bible code *predicts* that they’d get it wrong seven times, so that their *eighth* prediction will be right. But they’ve made 9 predictions! So what to do? Well, hedge of course. You see, only the *correct* incorrect predictions count. So they have an explanation for why *some* of the incorrect predictions were *correct* incorrect predictions, and some were *incorrect* incorrect predictions.
>On April 29th we started predicting dates for a terrorist Nuclear Bomb at the
>UN in midtown. After making several mistakes we realised that 1 Kings 18:43
>declared we would get it right at the 8th attempt (Since Elijah asked his
>attendant to go and look for a man made mushroom cloud 7 times after the first
>no show, making 8 attempts in all). The trouble is that we have found it hard
>to decide just what a valid attempt is. Here are all the incorrect dates we
>have so far proposed…
>
>2006Iyyar21 (May 19/20) [7 days after 2006Iyyar14]
>2006Iyyar28 (May 26/27) [7 days after first mistaken date]
>2006Iyyar11 (June 8/9) [First day of the 2,000 pigs of Mark 5 incorrectly calculated]
>2006Sivan12 (June 9/10) [First day of the 2,000 pigs of Mark 5 correctly calculated but misinterpreted]
>2006Tammuz2/3 (June30-July2) [7th sabbath after first mistaken date/7th sabbath omitting 2006Sivan5]
>2006Tammuz4-6 (July2 – July 4) [7th sabbath day when we asked people to lookout]
>2006Tammuz28/29 (July 25 – 27) [Assumed contest began on 911]
>2006Ab3/4 (July 30 – August 1) [Assumed second ‘day’ of contest began when wheat went limit up in Chicago]
>2006Ab8 (August 4/5) [Assumed second ‘day’ of contest began on non BLC day of 2006Adar28 so that 1750th day is sabbath]

>
>What we now propose is…
>
>2006Ab15 (August 11/12) [7th sabbath lookout period after first mistake]
>
>So one could say you have had 9 attempts, you screwed up each time, give up and
>try doing something less dramatic! But although our repeated failures would at
>first sight take more and more credibility away from our work, the world
>security situation is for a fact moving in a direction that lends more and more
>credibility to our work. We started behaving as prophets of Doom for the UN and
>for Manhattan on April 29th 2006, when we proposed 2006Iyyar11 (June 8/9) as
>the date of the first nuclear terrorist attack. At that time the following
>global security situation existed…
Gotta love it, eh?
I’ll give ’em credit for their persistence, if not for their intelligence, or their sanity, or their rationality, or even their theology.
[update]: http://scienceblogs.com/goodmath/2006/07/an_update_on_the_bible_code_bo.php
[code]: http://scienceblogs.com/goodmath/2006/07/bible_code_bozos.php
[firsttime]: http://scienceblogs.com/goodmath/2006/06/good_math_bad_math_might_be_in.php
[bozos]: http://www.truebiblecode.com/index.html

About 10 days ago, I wrote a post about a group of bozos who believe they’ve found a secret code in the bible, and that according to them, there was going to be a nuclear attack on the UN building in NYC by terrorists. This was their fourth attempt to predict a date based on their oh-so-marvelous code.
Well, obviously, they were wrong again. But, do they let that stop them? Of course not! That’s the beauty of using really bad math for your code: you can always change the result when it doesn’t work. If you get the result you want, then you can say your code was right; if you don’t get things right, it’s never the fault of the code: it’s just that you misinterpreted. I thought it would be amusing to show their excuse:

We made another mistake. The monthly Sabbath of 2006Tammuz is not 30 individual daily Sabbaths, but is one month long Sabbath. Our new predicted date for a Nuclear Attack on the UN in New York City launched from the Sea or a great River is Sundown Tuesday July 25th – Sundown Thursday July 27th.

Yeah, they got days and months mixed up. That’s the ticket! So now it’s another three weeks off. But they’re still right! They still know the truth, and want to save us!

Earlier this week, I posted [a brief article][nyc-boom] about the [“True Bible Code”][tbc] folks who claimed that NYC was going to be hit by a terrorist nuclear weapon this weekend.
I was looking at the rest of their site to see what their “true bible code” was. I was expecting something along the lines of the gap codes or yet another low-budget gematria. It turns out to be much more humorous than either of those.
Most of the bible-code type nonsense you find is based on simple rules. There’s a good reason for that: the more complex the rules get, the more likely they are to be artifacts. The more elaborate the rule, the less convincing it’s going to be as a real code, and the more likely it is to be an artifact of the natural structure of the language combined with that human pattern-finding ability.
The gap-coding is a good example of what a hidden-code system might really look like. It’s not obvious; but it’s simple enough to be able to look for the patterns. If it had turned out that the bible really had patterns coded that way, but you couldn’t find similar patterns in other texts, that would have been interesting. (In the original publication, they claimed only the old testament contained those patterns; but numerous folks [have shown that claim to be false][bc-debunk]. It’s an artifact of the natural structure of the hebrew language.)
In contrast – the more complex a system of rules gets, the more it includes special cases, conditions, alternatives, and subjective choices, the less likely it is to have any possibility of representing anything real. Language is complicated enough that if you take any text, and start adding rules, you can develop a system of rules which will describe properties of that text.
It’s a lot like working with machine learning algorithms. A machine learning algorithm is trained by taking a sequence of stuff as input (called training data), and analyzing it. The idea is that you feed it a bunch of data that has some property that you’re interested in; and after it’s been trained, it will be able to recognize other things with that property. Some machine learning algorithms [like decision trees][decision-tree] actually generate human-readable rules to describe the procedure it’s going to follow. One other thing that these kinds of algorithms can often do is provide an *exemplar*: a datum that is a typical example of a datum that matches a rule.
When you use machine learning on a set of data, and you set the parameters to make it very sensitive, very precisely selecting properties of the input data, you tend to get very strange, elaborate rules. For example, on the linked wiki page, they show a decision tree for helping you determine whether or not you should play golf on a particular day. Some of the rules are things like “If it’s sunny and the humidity is less than 70%, then you should play”. If the parameters were set to be too sensitive, you might end up with a rule like “If it’s sunny, and the humidity is greater than 12% and less than 42%, or greater than 51% but less than 68%, and it’s a tuesday or friday before 12pm in the summer, or it’s a wednesday after 4pm in the autumn, and at least one person you’re going to play with has a name that starts with ‘J’ or ‘P’, then you should play.”
The point of this little aside is that if you’re determined to find a set of rules that specifically describes one particular set of data, you can. But it’s going to be a very bizzare set of rules that really makes no sense.
So… Back to these “True Bible Code” guys. They’ve got incredibly elaborate rules. Twenty of them. Each of which has multiple cases and conditions. Let me give an example – what they call [the symbolic structure principle][tbc-symbolic] – which is one of their initial rules, and *not* one of the most complicated.
>Every literal account in the bible has the normal literal meaning.
>
>Every non literal account, such as a dream, a parable or a vision, has a
>straightforward symbolic meaning, which is the symbolic meaning of the
>events described in the account. We call this the Event Symbolic meaning, or
>the Event Symbolism.
>Every interpretational sub account in the bible has its normal literal
>meaning which describes the event symbolic meaning of one or more symbolic
>sub accounts. If the interpretation has symbolic sections then these have
>event symbolic meanings.
>
>Every account in the bible, which:
>
>[1] contains a ‘countable noun’, which is a noun acting as a noun (or a
>participle which declines as a noun which is used as a noun, such as a
>’baker’ – the one causing [things] to be baked – a Hiphil participle in
>Hebrew) which is repeated an even number of times (wherein all repeated
>words take the same meaning in the literal account or in the event
>symbolism), and which does not contain a double designation – see [Code6b]
>or which
>
>[2] has a parallel account elsewhere in the bible,
>
>has a further set of one, two, three or four (so far as we have found) word
>symbolic meanings.
>
>The number of Word Symbolic meanings in a sub account is determined by the
>Successive Designations Principle below – see [Code6b]. These greater
>meanings are in addition to the literal meaning, in the case of a literal
>account, and are in addition to the straightforward symbolic meaning, the
>event symbolic meaning, in the case of a symbolic account such as a dream, a
>vision or a parable. They are in addition to the literal/event symbolic
>meaning of an interpretational sub account.
>
>If a bible account contains an interpretational subaccount (typically an
>interpretation from Jesus, Daniel or Joseph), then the literal meaning of
>the interpretation is the event symbolic meaning of the symbolic subaccount
>which it is interpreting. Obviously since the narrative is also literal, its
>literal meaning sets the scene for the event symbolic meaning of all of its
>symbolic subaccounts.
>
>The first word symbolic meaning of any interpretational subaccount is the
>first word symbolic meaning of the symbolic subaccount which it interprets.
>Furthermore the existence of a first word symbolic thread in an
>interpretational subaccount unites the first word symbolic meaning of the
>narrative to the first word symbolic meaning of the symbolic subaccount
>which the interpretation is explaining.
>
>Likewise the second, third, fourth word symbolic meanings of any
>interpretational subaccount (if they exist) are the second third fourth word
>symbolic meanings of the symbolic subaccount which it interprets.
>Furthermore the existence of a second, third, fourth word symbolic thread in
>an interpretational subaccount unites the second, third, fourth word
>symbolic meaning of the narrative to the second, third, fourth word symbolic
>meaning of the symbolic subaccount which the interpretation is explaining.
>
>Likewise the non existence of a first second third fourth word symbolic
>thread in an interpretational subaccount decouples the first second third
>fourth word symbolic meaning of the symbolic account which it interprets
>from the first second third fourth word symbolic meanings of the narrative
>respectively.
After that whopper of a rule, they go through six examples; followed by four “proofs”. The proofs are pretty much indistinguishable from the examples. For example, here’s the shortest one, the fourth “proof”.
>Finally we have the shortest parable in the bible which is:
>
>33 Another illustration he spoke to them: The kingdom of the heavens is like
>leaven, which a woman took and hid in three large measures of flour, until
>the whole mass was fermented/leavened (Matthew 13).
>
>Ok, you young paduan learners! If it is the most insignificant and smallest
>of the parables in the whole bible, then what does this tell you about its
>spiritual meaning in this upside down world in which we live?
>
>Yes, it is the greatest of them all in meaning. Well, the event symbolic
>meaning is as follows:
>
>The woman is the holy spirit, the leaven is the bible code, and the three
>lumps of flour are the literal, the event symbolic and the account symbolic
>meanings of the bible. When the whole mass is fermented/leavened (decoded),
>then we can truly eat the whole book and see both the code and the truth and
>God and the true religion and his plan and his love and his humour and his
>righteousness, and our total and utter pretentiousness and stupidity
>stretching over 3500 years. As regards the account symbolic meaning of
>Matthew 13:33 and the parallel account in Luke 13:20 please see section[69].
>
>This leaven is not the wicked teachings of the Pharisees but is rather the
>good teachings of the true priesthood of God. This website is the result of
>such leaven. We are expanding the bread of heaven to make it fully
>digestible.
This looks a *lot* like what I would expect as the output from a rule-generating machine learning system – right down to that so-called “proof”, which isn’t a proof, but an examplar. As a computer scientist, if I saw my system generating a rule like this, my reaction would be to adjust the parameters – because I’m clearly generating garbage. For *any* large set of documents, you *can* come up with a set of rules that matches them. The question is, do they matter? Do they have any real meaning, or are they just coincidental? The answer is usually that elaborate multicondition rules, particularly when they involve subjective terms, is that they’re meaningless coincidence. Like the ones here.
[nyc-boom]: http://scienceblogs.com/goodmath/2006/06/good_math_bad_math_might_be_in.php
[tbc]: http://www.truebiblecode.com/
[tbc-symbolic]: http://www.truebiblecode.com/code.html#c5
[bc-debunk]: http://www.postfun.com/pfp/bible/code.html
[decision-tree]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_tree

I just received some email that would seriously worry me if it weren’t for the fact that I’m not an idiot.

WARNING!
TERRORISTS are going to ATTACK NEW YORK!
There is NO TIME to waste! Go read http://www.truebiblecode.com/nyc.html!!!!!!

Going there, I find:

We are now 98% confident that the UN Plaza will be hit by a terrorist nuclear bomb between Thursday evening June 29th and Tuesday evening July 4th, 2006
It is certainly true that: No nukes is good nukes! But just because we got the date wrong (3 times) does not mean that the scriptural threat has evaporated. It is still there in black and white in bible symbolism. So we still have the almost impossible task of persuading a typical New Yorker with faith in God, that the Bible predicts the very day and place of the first terrorist nuke. There is obviously a massive credibility gap between: “Here endeth the lesson” and “Here endeth NYC”. But every journey, however long, begins with one small step. So here is our attempt to fill that gap.
Firstly we again strongly advise anyone in New York City with any faith in God, whatever his religion or whatever his distrust of organised religion, to take the last Thursday in June off and to get out of NYC for that weekend and not come back until the evening of July 4 if nothing happens.
You can then study this fascinating article outside NYC at your leisure, during that weekend or more to the point, after that weekend! It is going to be hard to find the necessary time during the next few days, given the busy schedule of every New Yorker, to sit down and fully analyze the fruits of 14 years of bible decoding and reach a rational decision about such a momentous prediction. So the sensible course of action might be to judge for yourself whether we are sincere in our efforts to decode the bible. And if you see that we are sincere, then rather than taking an intellectual walk from basic faith to accurate bible prophecy, just rely on all of the work that we have so far done and on the basis of your faith and our sincerity, take the weekend out of the city.

You gotta love this. Not only is it a splendid example of worse kind of pseudo-numerological gibberish, but they admit to having been wrong three times already. But this time, this time!, they’ve really got it right! We should trust them and get the hell of of NYC this weekend, no matter what it costs!